Monday, 26 February 2018

2 Thought Leaders


In Ernest Hemingway’s novel “The Sun Also Rises”, there is a dialogue “How did you go bankrupt?”
The response is “gradually and then suddenly”.

It is so apt.
While reading about NPAs and the resolution process, I read a column written by Dr M S Sahoo- Chairperson of the “Insolvency and Bankruptcy Board of India (IBBI)” where he quoted Hemingway.
I was immediately drawn towards Dr Sahoo’s writings and found them here. You can find them under the resources tab.

Dr Sahoo delivered Dr R H Patil Memorial Lecture where he talked about important concepts of -

1.     Institutional Environment
2.     Institutional Arrangement

Using an example of stock exchange and anonymous screen-based trading system-he explains the above concepts in a lucid manner.

Another important concept he touches upon is that of Economic Liberty with an example of how 4 persons received show cause notices from the competition authority.

“Different conducts can invite the same outcome under economic laws and the same conduct may yield different outcomes in different contexts. So, it is not so much the conduct, as the context- who, why, when, what, where and how- of the conduct that matters. Rule of reason to guide economic liberty.”

This helps me to further understand the case of Intellect Design Arena which I wrote about in my last post. It is not the conduct alone but “context and conduct” meshed together which matters.

Dr Sahoo spoke very highly of Dr R H Patil – the “Father of National Stock Exchange” and how his thinking got shaped by Dr Patil.
I read up on Dr Patil and came across this beautiful interview in Moneylife magazine.

Some excerpts:

“After the Harshad Mehta scam in 1992, the government was groping in the dark about what to do…G.V. Ramakrishna was the SEBI chairman. The finance ministry had called a meeting and I only got to know what was to be discussed on reaching there. Montek (Ahluwalia, then finance secretary), Dr P.J. Nayak (then jt. secretary and now chairman, Axis Bank), Mr Ramakrishna, Mr Nadkarni (IDBI chairman) and I were present. The concept of NSE was born at that meeting. We wanted to do things differently. We discussed setting up a professional organisation with screen-based trading, a weekly settlement system, etc.”


I then said, “I want to move over to NSE.” The company had already been formed and I was a director on its board. He was shocked. He said, “People aspire for power and you are saying that you want to go to an entity which nobody is sure if it will succeed or not. Aren’t you taking too much of a risk?” I said, “Sometimes one should take the risk.” He said, “Are you sure you want to take a risk at this age?” I said, “It is only at this age that I can take the risk. Both of us -- my wife and I -- have been earning; we both lead very modest lives. We have decent savings. If we continue to live modestly, I can take that risk.” In fact, many people said that I was a fool. But my own feeling was that, once you retire from IDBI, who remembers you? So, I decided that it does not matter whether or not I succeed in setting up NSE. My grandfather used to say, if you make a whistle out of a carrot, it is good if it plays; and if does not, you can always eat it.”

“As someone who creates new markets, where do you invest your money?

In RBI bonds and in mutual funds - there too I invest in FMPs - so no risks. You need a different mindset to take risks. I prefer to devote my limited energies to do things that are more productive, especially from a social point of view. I have tried to create a world to protect others’ risks -- (laughs a lot) - that too through systems and design. Remember, systems and design only. After all, what are margins? They are walls so that the speculators don’t jump into the sea.”


Amazing clarity about building institutions, risks and priorities in life.

I am sure the readers will feel motivated- as I felt- after reading about the above thought leaders. They help us build layers of understanding and shape our own personalities.



Wednesday, 20 December 2017

Field Marshal Sam Manekshaw- On Leadership and Discipline


While going through the old readings, I found this incisive and witty speech of Field Marshal Manekshaw.
The speech continues to be as didactive and refreshing as it would have been 19 years back, when delivered. 



Sunday, 3 December 2017

Session at MDI- Corrigendum


A reader pointed out that the order of 5 steps in presentation and the internship note was different. In the presentation, the downside risks come before management while in the internship note, I have mentioned management before downside risks.

Thank you for pointing out. I uploaded an internship note which was written earlier. Sorry.

While thinking about the process over a period of time, I realized that the process would be more robust if I evaluate downside risks before I evaluate the management.

Revised internship note : Link

Saturday, 2 December 2017

Session at MDI


I had the privilege to speak at Bakshi Sir's class yesterday.
It was a quite an interactive session with the upcoming batch of value investors.

Please find the abridged presentation :   Link
Also, in conjunction find a note on the framework which I share with every batch of interns. It explains the same concepts as in the presentation:  Link

Saturday, 2 September 2017

The Art of Adding Weights
















I strongly believe that adding weights at the appropriate places is the most important element in our lives, and more so in investing.

"Adding weights" means that in anything that we think about , there are always a few factors which carry most of the freight. If we are thinking about risks, there would be a few risks that would determine the beauty or lack of it in a business. If we think about opportunity size or tailwinds, again there would be a few factors which would determine which way the scale tilts. And the same goes with position sizing in the portfolio: a few positions where the investor has the strongest conviction (with minimal risk) will determine if the returns are better than average. I think the concept of adding weights is universally applicable in whichever field we operate or whatever decision we think about.

This is nothing new. It is just Pareto's principle described from a different view-point.

Our job as an investor is to carefully determine which factors should carry the maximum weight. Adding weights without careful consideration can make sure that the disadvantages also get out sized.  Looking at a good business but getting stuck with manager remuneration which is a few percentage points higher than average is a classic case of adding weight on the wrong side, in my view.

Like the game of fruit ninja, we should develop the art of quickly slicing away the factors which are benign or non-core. And then spend a large amount of time, attention and thinking power on factors that are the heaviest.




Thursday, 20 July 2017

Meeting Managements- Listen to Mr. Bakshi


Meeting the management has been a conundrum for investors. To meet or not depends on the individual style. There is no right or wrong answer.

But I think it is important to remember what Mr Bakshi said in 1982. 

Listen to this song :

Link

Remember to replace the word "pyaar" with "bias". 

I have written name of Mr. Bakshi to attract attention to this post. But it is not Prof. Bakshi but the lyricist of the song, Mr. Anand Bakshi :-)

So, every time you walk in to meet any management , have this song on your lips and hopefully you will come out just fine.

Friday, 5 May 2017

Internship 2017-18 (List)

Hi Everyone,

First of all thank you for evincing interest in the internship and sending in your applications.

Replying and acknowledging the individual mails was not possible. However, I have taken due care that none of the mails remain unattended in the bulk /spam folder. 

I carefully went through each application and short listed the names. From the short list, I picked a draw of 10 names which are :

  1. Vishal Prasad
  2. Shyam Sunder R
  3. Harsh Gupta
  4. Gummadi Jaya Chandra
  5. Sameer Sawant
  6. Vikas Kasturi
  7. Niyas CV
  8. Anubhav Bhambri
  9. Ankush Raghuvanshi
  10. Midhun James
Best wishes,
Ankur